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Market perspectives & updates
Our views on market conditions, sector dynamics, and investment opportunities across Central and Eastern Europe.
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Exit Scenarios Must Be Designed
Exits are not events—they are engineered pathways. The most important exit work is done at entry, not at sale.
Recent publications
CapEx Gating: Spend With Purpose
CapEx is not value creation by default. It creates value only when it accelerates leasing, lifts rents, or expands the exit buyer universe.
Time-to-Stabilisation Becomes Competitive Edge
Markets reward execution certainty in dislocated pricing cycles. Compressing time-to-stabilisation is often the single biggest driver of risk-adjusted outperformance.
Modernisation Is Now a Necessity
Rising operating costs and tighter regulations are accelerating building upgrades. Refurbishment is shifting from "capex choice" to "market entry ticket".
Office Withdrawals Reshape Supply Dynamics
Obsolete offices are leaving the market faster. Withdrawals and conversions are becoming a structural source of "negative supply".
Vacancy Falls Despite Low Supply
Vacancy is trending down, driven by take-up and stock withdrawals. This supports rent pressure in the strongest locations and rewards well-timed upgrades.
Warsaw Office Stock Reaches 6.23m
Warsaw remains a deep, institutional-scale office market. But growth is slowing sharply—making existing stock the key battleground.
Warsaw New Homes: Price Signals
Warsaw's primary residential market remains active. Price dynamics and institutional PRS growth reinforce why "Living" is investable.
Warsaw Leasing Sets New Record
Leasing volumes signal demand resilience. In a supply-constrained market, strong take-up translates into faster stabilisation for upgraded assets.
Warsaw Rents Still Below Peak
Warsaw still shows "catch-up" potential on rents. A structural shift in supply makes that undervaluation more actionable.
CBD Versus Non-Central Rent Bands
Rent bands in Warsaw show a clear location premium. This supports a strategy focused on micro-markets with real tenant depth and liquidity.
Vacancy Masks Prime Tightness
Headline vacancy can mislead. Prime-ready space tightens even when overall availability looks comfortable.
Adaptive Reuse Goes Mainstream
Modernisation and change of use are becoming structural themes in Poland. The market increasingly values buildings that can be upgraded—or repurposed—rather than replaced.
Operator Platforms Win Student Housing
PBSA is consolidating through operators and platforms. Scale is becoming a competitive advantage in pricing, procurement, and occupancy management.
PBSA Supply Accelerates Nationwide
Private student housing is scaling fast in Poland. The investment thesis is increasingly driven by operations, location, and platform capability.
Europe RevPAR Growth Normalises
Hotel performance remains positive, but growth is moderating. Underwriting needs to assume "normal" conditions, not post-pandemic acceleration.
Supply Gap Fuels Prime Rerating
Developers are focusing on central zones, while total supply remains constrained. This supports prime rent growth and increases the value of well-located upgrades.
Poland CRE Holds Up in 2025
Transaction volumes show resilience despite global uncertainty. The message is clear: assets still trade when pricing matches reality.
Domestic Capital Gains Real Confidence
Polish capital is becoming a stronger part of the liquidity equation. This strengthens exit optionality across sectors and ticket sizes.
Capital Values Rebound Off Trough
Capital values are recovering, but the rebound is uneven. The biggest opportunity is where the value gap is driven by fixable execution risk.
Warsaw Yield Spread Still Matters
Prime yields are beginning to compress again. Warsaw's yield gap versus Western Europe remains a key part of its relative-value story.
Prime Rents Outrun Long-Term Norms
Prime rent growth is being driven by scarcity and quality bias. Net effective rents rising signals that incentives are no longer the whole story.
Warsaw Supply Gap Turns Structural
Warsaw's office pipeline has fallen sharply versus the previous cycle. This makes existing stock—and its repositioning potential—central to market evolution.
Living Captures Investor Attention
Living has become a mainstream allocation priority. Capital is following structural demand, not short-term headlines.
Institutional PRS Hits Critical Mass
Poland's institutional PRS is scaling quickly. The next phase is about platform efficiency, repeatability, and creating product that fits long-duration capital.
Lenders Reopen, but ESG Filters
Debt is returning, but it is not "cheap" and not unconditional. Sustainability has become a credit gate—impacting leverage, pricing, and exit liquidity.
Hotels Re-enter Core Allocation
European hotel fundamentals remain constructive. For investors, the focus is shifting from "recovery" to "durable performance" and operational resilience.
Poland Anchors CEE Deal Flow
CEE liquidity is recovering, led by Poland. That makes local execution capability more valuable than ever for international and domestic capital.
Poland's 2025 Growth Tailwind
Poland enters 2025 with improving macro conditions. The opportunity is to pair this tailwind with assets where value can be engineered, not hoped for.
Capital Rotates Toward Refurbish-to-Core
Core office liquidity is still selective. Capital is moving toward "refurbish-to-core" and use-class repositioning where execution is the main source of alpha.
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